Awards Night Predictions: Our Critics Weigh In

Our critics made their (fictional) awards predictions this week, and they did not agree. Over two long lunches, three pots of coffee and one heated argument about a supporting performance, the Matinee film team went category by category through this year’s nominees. We asked each critic to answer two questions for every race: who will win, and who should win. The gap between those two answers says a lot about how awards work, and it makes for a much more interesting read than a simple list of favorites. Here is where we landed, along with the reasoning behind each call.

How we made our picks

Predicting awards is part science, part gut feeling. Our critics looked at the earlier (fictional) guild and critics’ circle prizes, the buzz coming out of the fall festivals and the kinds of films voters have rewarded in the past. Then they set all of that aside and asked which films and performances actually moved them.

We used a simple method for each category: